El Niño and the risk of super El Niño in 2026/2027

El Niño is a natural climatic phenomenon characterized by the abnormal warming of the surface waters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. It alters wind and moisture circulation, causing severe climate changes in various parts of the world, such as intense droughts, heavy rains, and temperature fluctuations.

What is happening?

After a 2025 marked by La Niña, international climate models converge on the formation of a new El Niño throughout 2026. In June 2026, NOAA officially issued an El Niño Advisory, confirming the onset of the phenomenon. According to the agency, oceanic and atmospheric conditions already characterize an El Niño event, with a 63% probability of reaching very strong intensity between November 2026 and January 2027. Furthermore, the reliability of the projections has significantly increased after the end of the so-called "spring predictability barrier."

The alert gained more serious contours with the assessment of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which points to the real risk of forming the strongest El Niño in over a century, with the potential to surpass the record of 2015 (when Pacific waters reached 2.8ºC above average). The peak is expected between late 2026 and early 2027, a period that coincides with the reproductive phase of soybeans and the planting of second-crop corn.

The phenomenon has a "scissors" effect on the country: it favors above-average rainfall in the South but reduces precipitation and increases the frequency of dry spells in the Midwest, MATOPIBA, and the northern portion of the Southeast, precisely the regions that concentrate the majority of Brazil's grain, coffee, and sugarcane production.

Regional overview: Midwest and Southeast

Soybeans and second-crop corn

The intensification of El Niño is expected to occur in the last quarter of 2026, a critical period for the start of soybean planting in the Midwest and MATOPIBA. The typical pattern includes irregular rains, prolonged dry spells, and planting delays, with the risk of water deficit during flowering and grain filling stages.

The cascading effect is the most concerning for crop planning: by delaying soybean planting, the producer compresses the ideal window for second-crop corn, increasing its exposure to water deficit and high temperatures during grain filling, the main historical factor of productivity volatility for corn in the Midwest and MATOPIBA.

Coffee (South of Minas and Cerrado Mineiro)

The coffee-growing regions of the Southeast should closely monitor the evolution of the phenomenon. The irregularity of rainfall may compromise the uniformity of flowering, increase flower drop, and reduce productivity, a problem exacerbated by higher temperatures and prolonged water stress, without dismissing the sporadic risk of frosts in higher areas during winter.

Sugarcane (Center-South)

Responsible for about 90% of national milling, the Center-South may experience a reversal of the water regime between winter and summer, compromising the harvest rhythm and the concentration of sucrose in the mills.

Cattle and pastures

In the Southeast and Midwest, the combination of heat, low humidity, and delayed rains reduces biomass production and delays pasture regrowth, increasing dependence on supplementation and concentrates. This pressures production costs at a time when the producer's purchasing power is already strained.

Risk synthesis by crop and system

Risks to agribusiness: from the field to the balance sheet

●      Crop failure: The market's baseline scenario still projects a new record soybean crop (around 182 million tons), but simulations from Itaú BBA show that a 6% drop in production, a magnitude similar to that of 2023/24, when Mato Grosso experienced a 16% drop in productivity, would already be enough to reduce global stocks to recent lows.

●      Credit and default risk: Delinquency in rural credit for individuals reached 7.4%–7.6% in 2026, compared to 1.49% in May 2024, an increase of about five times. Problematic credit (delays, renegotiations, and extensions) already exceeds R$ 186 billion, and the sector recorded 1,990 requests for judicial recovery in 2025, the highest number in the historical series.

●      Low productivity: El Niño years historically increase the volatility of corn productivity in the Midwest and MATOPIBA. The cascading effect of delayed soybean planting on second-crop corn is currently pointed out as the main vector of productivity loss for 2026/27.

●      Crop loss due to extreme events: Prolonged dry spells during flowering and grain filling increase the risk of total loss of plots in dryland systems, especially where rural insurance coverage is low, the 2026/27 Crop Plan did not expand the resources of the Rural Insurance Subsidy Program, leaving a significant portion of producers without a safety net.

With rural credit interest rates between 9% and 12.5% per year in official lines and market rates that can exceed 18% per year, any new crop disappointment tends to quickly translate into pressure on cash flow and the producer's ability to pay, reinforcing the cycle of indebtedness observed since 2023.

How Agrion Fertilizantes can help mitigate these risks

In a scenario of intense El Niño, with more frequent dry spells and greater irregularity of rains in the Midwest and Southeast, crop resilience ceases to depend solely on climate and also depends on the physical and nutritional quality of the soil. Agrion Fertilizantes' pelleted organominerals act precisely at this point: the organomineral matrix improves soil aggregation and porosity, favoring water retention and reducing compaction—conditions that help mitigate the effects of water stress during dry spells and maintain water availability to the roots for longer between irregular rains. The gradual release of nutrients, typical of the pelleted structure, reduces losses due to leaching and volatilization and maintains a more constant supply throughout the cycle, which is especially relevant when the delay in soybean planting compresses the window for second-crop corn and requires the plant to absorb nutrients efficiently in a shorter period. Additionally, the addition of organic matter improves biological activity and the cation exchange capacity of the soil, strengthening the root system and the physiological vigor of the plants, factors that enhance tolerance to extreme heat and water deficit events and contribute to sustaining productivity even in climatically challenging years. For the producer, this translates into lower exposure to the risk of crop failure and, consequently, greater revenue predictability to meet rural credit commitments in a cycle already marked by high interest rates and record delinquency.

5. Practical recommendations for the producer

●      Anticipate planting planning and consider alternative sowing windows to reduce the exposure of second-crop corn to water deficit.

●      Reinforce the contracting of rural insurance and income protection instruments (Proagro, parametric insurance) given the current low coverage.

●      Invest in soil management and gradual release nutrition from Agrion Fertilizantes to increase crop resilience to dry spells and heat waves.

●      Monitor official technical bulletins (INMET, CPTEC/INPE, Embrapa Agrometeorology) and review cash flow and debt structure before contracting new working capital credit.

Sources

NOAA/CPC; World Meteorological Organization (WMO); INMET; Itaú BBA; Rabobank; Nottus; Central Bank of Brazil; Serasa Experian; FGVAgro; Aprosoja Brasil; FAEP System; CNN Brasil; Greenpeace Brasil; and specialized agribusiness reports (Brasilagro, Agrolink, Mais Soja, Conexão MT, Compre Rural) — data from April to June 2026.

This bulletin is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation for credit, investment, or specific agronomic management.