Phosphates in Brazil: Possible Supply Restriction from September Increases Attention to Crop Nutrition

The availability of phosphate fertilizers may become one of the main points of attention for Brazilian agribusiness in the coming months. According to an assessment released by Mosaic, the stocks accumulated by Brazil throughout the first half of the year could be depleted by the end of August, causing the effects of the global supply restriction to be felt by producers starting in September.

This scenario occurs amid a combination of geopolitical and logistical factors that have been affecting the international fertilizer market. Among them is the reduction in the availability of sulfur, an important raw material for the production of phosphate fertilizers.

Brazilian Stocks Helped Delay Impacts

Brazil managed, in the first months of 2026, to build up high stocks of different types of phosphate fertilizers. The purchases occurred before the escalation of tensions in the Middle East and helped prevent the reduction in global supply from immediately reaching Brazilian producers.

However, this stock is not permanent.

According to the assessment presented by Mosaic, the expectation is that the accumulated stocks will be consumed in the coming weeks. As a result, the Brazilian market may begin to feel more directly the effects of the lower international availability.

The situation requires attention mainly because phosphate fertilizers play a strategic role in the formation and development of crops, being directly related to the supply of phosphorus, an essential nutrient for processes such as root development, initial establishment of plants, and formation of productive potential.

Global Phosphate Restriction Increases Pressure on the Market

The current supply difficulty is not concentrated only in Brazil.

According to Mosaic, the reduction in sulfur availability caused by geopolitical tensions contributed to a nearly 20% drop in global phosphate production. In a scenario of continued conflicts, this reduction could reach 30% or even exceed that percentage.

Sulfur is used in different stages of the phosphate fertilizer production chain. The interruption or reduction of trade flows of this raw material, therefore, generates impacts that can propagate throughout the entire chain.

The situation also demonstrates how the fertilizer market remains vulnerable to events occurring outside Brazilian borders.

For a country that has a strong dependence on fertilizer imports, changes in international supply can quickly influence availability, prices, and purchasing planning.

Lower Application May Bring Agronomic Impacts

One of the main risks of a scarcity scenario goes beyond the price of fertilizer.

According to the projection presented by Mosaic, the application of phosphate fertilizers in Brazil could drop by up to 30% if supply restrictions persist and there is no normalization of trade flows.

The reduction in phosphorus use can represent a significant agronomic challenge, especially in production systems where soil fertility and nutritional balance are crucial for achieving high productivity.

The absence or inadequate reduction of fertilization should not be analyzed merely as an immediate cost-saving measure. The decision can interfere with crop development and, consequently, with productive potential throughout the cycle.

For this reason, periods of supply restriction reinforce the importance of planning, soil analysis, and efficient use of available nutrients.

Agronomic Efficiency Gains Even More Importance

In times of greater availability of fertilizers, inadequate management decisions can represent waste. In a scenario of restricted supply, however, efficiency takes on even greater weight.

The planning of fertilization should consider soil characteristics, the planted crop, expected productivity, and the nutritional needs of each area.

The use of sources that promote greater efficiency in nutrient utilization can also contribute to a more rational management strategy.

In this context, organomineral fertilizers gain ground as an alternative within plant nutrition programs that seek to combine the supply of mineral nutrients with organic components.

More than just replacing one source with another, the challenge lies in building a nutritional strategy capable of preserving productivity while efficiently utilizing available resources.

The Impact May Be Greater in an Adverse Climate Scenario

The concern about the availability of phosphates is also related to the climatic conditions expected for the next agricultural cycle.

In Mosaic's assessment, a potential reduction in fertilizer application could have more significant consequences if crops face unfavorable climatic conditions. The company also mentioned the possibility of a super El Niño occurring in certain regions as an additional risk factor.

The combination of lower nutrient availability and climate stress can increase the challenges faced by the producer.

Therefore, soil fertility planning ceases to be merely an operational decision and becomes part of the property’s risk management strategy.

Brazil Remains a Strategic Market

Despite the temporary reduction in production and adjustments made in some units, Mosaic stated that it remains committed to the Brazilian market.

The company reported that it intends to combine the reduction of local production with the possibility of directing products manufactured in North America to Brazil, depending on availability and demand.

This movement demonstrates the strategic importance of the Brazilian market within the global fertilizer chain, but also highlights the need for diversification and planning by producers and companies operating in the sector.

What Can Producers Do in This Scenario?

The possibility of a restriction in the supply of phosphates reinforces the need for anticipation.

Among the main points that can be considered are:

• Advance planning of fertilizer purchases;

• Analysis and monitoring of soil fertility;

• Defining doses according to the real needs of each area;

• Seeking greater efficiency in nutrient utilization;

• Evaluation of different sources and fertilization strategies;

• Constant monitoring of market conditions;

• Integration between agronomic planning and cost management.

The goal should not simply be to use less fertilizer, but to use fertilizer more efficiently and strategically.

In a scenario of lower availability, each decision related to crop nutrition can have a direct impact on production costs and productive potential.

AGRION: Efficiency and Strategy in the Face of Plant Nutrition Challenges

The projected scenario for the coming months reinforces a discussion that is gaining increasing relevance in agribusiness: the need to produce more while using available resources efficiently.

AGRION operates precisely in this context, developing solutions in plant nutrition and organomineral fertilizers aimed at agronomic efficiency and building nutritional strategies more suited to the needs of each production system.

In a market subject to price fluctuations, raw material restrictions, and instabilities in international supply, efficiency ceases to be just a competitive advantage and becomes a management tool.

The possible tightening of phosphate supply starting in September serves, therefore, as a warning for the entire chain: planning, nutritional efficiency, and technology will become increasingly important to maintain productivity in the face of a more challenging fertilizer market.

AGRION monitors market transformations and seeks to contribute to producers finding efficient solutions for crop nutrition, combining technology, nutrient utilization, and sustainability in agricultural production.